2017 Atlantic hurricane season montage

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, ultimately a hyperactive one, officially ends today, November 30. Thank goodness. The season finished with 18 tropical depressions, 17 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. All 10 hurricanes came consecutively, one after the other, beginning with Franklin and ending with Ophelia. I'm fairly certain that is by far the record. I lucked out here from devastating impacts here in Austin several hundred miles from the coast, but I did end up with quite a bit of steady rainfall from Harvey.

Here's a hand-drawn montage that sums the season up. I've been working on this throughout the season as storms came and went. The storms themselves are hand-drawn, while some of the background clouds come from a GOES infrared satellite image composite from July 13. All rights reserved, but feel free to use it as a desktop wallpaper. It's 16:9, after all. I'll have a link to more image sizes over at Flickr once I upload this there.

Invest 90E designated in the far eastern East Pacific

A segment of the monsoon trough in the East Pacific has been showing signs of organization throughout the day today, and has become interesting enough to be designated as an investigative area, or "INVEST" for short. 90E is the first investigative area designated this year - such areas are designated with a number from 90 to 99, which repeats as more and more disturbances are tagged. Conditions seem modestly favorable for development, with light shear and warm waters. The National Hurricane Center has indicated a 20% chance for tropical cyclogenesis in the next two days and a 70% over the next five days. All major global forecast models indicate eventual development, with the GFS being the most aggressive and taking the storm up to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane as it approaches El Salvador - the fact that there is a possibility at all of a hurricane impacting El Salvador is quite rare, and no storms have made landfall on the typically protected country. The IFS is weaker and depicts the eventual tropical cyclone striking Mexico's southeastern coast, but nonetheless depicts a hurricane.

The storm should be steered westward (the extent of this remains uncertain) by a ridge in the Gulf of Mexico, before being propelled northeast by a passing trough.

A look back at the projected tracks on several GFS runs prior to the designation of Invest 90E:

Potential MLK Storm Event for Central Texas

As Central Texas experiences an overcast day with weak, intermittent showers and patchy mist, a more significant, potentially severe storm event might just be looming around the corner this weekend and through MLK Day on Monday. A stationary cold front lies just south of the I-10 corridor, helping to keep areas north of the interstate cooler and protected from the warm Gulf air responsible for some of the recent record highs. Very light rainfall in the context of widespread mistiness is expected throughout the day Saturday, though with some instability arising from a weak low-level jet there may be some isolated and highly localized storm activity later tonight, mostly west of the Austin area.

The action will start to pick up Sunday as a low-pressure system and associated cold front sweep east across the state; the disturbance is currently over Mexico. Prior to the arrival of the front there should be plenty of scattered showers streaming in from the southeast. With increasing southerly winds and energy in the atmosphere (CAPE), there may be some severe thunderstorm development further west in the San Angelo area; some of these storms may take advantage of the modest shear and become tornadic. These thunderstorms should congeal into a line as they approach the Austin area Sunday night, making wind the primary severe threat associated with these storms here.