College Football Inertial Consensus Rankings (CFB-ICR?)

The AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, and the College Football Playoff committee rankings are just some of the rankings of the top college football teams out there, though they are by far the most well known. This page is an effort to gauge the current consensus attitude of these rankings and polls towards college football teams. 

I've tabulated several rankings from various media sources over the course of the football season and preseason, excluding computer rankings that are intended to determine power ratings (things like SP+ or FPI). Rankings are only used if they rank at least the top 25 teams, and rankings up to #30 are recorded (teams not within top-25 rankings are assigned a rank of #31). A 1-sigma Gaussian smoothed LOWESS is then applied to each team in the rankings weighted in time, with the most recent value of that curve being the current estimated "consensus ranking" of the team. Because the curves are LOWESS, they are affected somewhat by rankings from previous weeks. Thus, the ranking of teams in this listing do not change as rapidly as individual rankings and polls. This can either be a good thing or a bad thing, depending on how one values ranking inertia.


Week 14 Inertial Consensus Ranking (updated November 26, 2024)

  1. ▸Oregon Ducks (μ = 1.0 ± 0.0) [0.0]
  2. ▸Ohio State Buckeyes (μ = 2.0 ± 0.0) [0.0]
  3. ▸Texas Longhorns (μ = 3.0 ± 0.2) [+0.2]
  4. ▴Penn State Nittany Lions (μ = 4.3 ± 0.2) [+0.4]
  5. ▴Notre Dame Fighting Irish (μ = 5.2 ± 0.4) [+1.7]
  6. ▴Georgia Bulldogs (μ = 7.1 ± 1.3) [+2.0]
  7. ▾Indiana Hoosiers (μ = 7.4 ± 1.3) [-2.9]
  8. ▴Miami Hurricanes (μ = 8.2 ± 0.9) [+1.9]
  9. ▴Tennessee Volunteers (μ = 9.1 ± 0.8) [+1.2]
  10. ▴SMU Mustangs (μ = 9.2 ± 0.8) [+2.9]
  11. ▴Boise State Broncos (μ = 11.2 ± 0.6) [+1.4]
  12. ▾Alabama Crimson Tide (μ = 11.8 ± 0.6) [-4.3]
  13. ▾Ole Miss Rebels (μ = 13.7 ± 1.1) [-4.5]
  14. ▴Clemson Tigers (μ = 14.2 ± 0.7) [+3.8]
  15. ▾BYU Cougars (μ = 15.8 ± 2.0) [-5.2]
  16. ▴South Carolina Gamecocks (μ = 16.5 ± 0.9) [+3.3]
  17. ▴Arizona State Rebels (μ = 17.2 ± 2.2) [+7.5]
  18. ▾Texas A&M Aggies (μ = 18.5 ± 0.6) [-3.3]
  19. ▴Iowa State Cyclones (μ = 18.6 ± 1.2) [+3.7]
  20. ▸Tulane Green Wave (μ = 19.2 ± 1.4) [+2.9]
  21. ▾Colorado Buffaloes (μ = 21.5 ± 1.8) [-4.3]
  22. ▴UNLV Rebels (μ = 23.0 ± 1.2) [+3.2]
  23. ▾Army Black Knights (μ = 23.1 ± 3.9) [-5.3]
  24. ▾Kansas State Wildcats (μ = 24.0 ± 1.8) [-0.3]
  25. ▸Missouri Tigers (μ = 24.3 ± 1.5) [+1.2]
  26. ▴Illinois Fighting Illini (μ = 25.3 ± 2.9)
  27. ▾Washington State Cougars
  28. ▴Memphis Tigers (μ = 29.2 ± 1.8)
  29. ▾Louisville Cardinals
  30. ▾LSU Tigers

Week 13 Inertial Consensus Ranking (updated November 19, 2024)

  1. ▸Oregon Ducks (μ = 1.0 ± 0.0) [0.0]
  2. ▸Ohio State Buckeyes (μ = 2.0 ± 0.0) [+0.2]
  3. ▸Texas Longhorns (μ = 3.2 ± 0.3) [+0.5]
  4. ▸Indiana Hoosiers (μ = 4.5 ± 1.2) [+0.8]
  5. ▸Penn State Nittany Lions (μ = 4.7 ± 0.4) [+0.8]
  6. ▴Notre Dame Fighting Irish (μ = 6.9 ± 0.6) [+1.6]
  7. ▴Alabama Crimson Tide (μ = 7.5 ± 0.4) [+2.3]
  8. ▴Georgia Bulldogs (μ = 9.1 ± 2.4) [-0.3]
  9. ▴Ole Miss Rebels (μ = 9.2 ± 0.5) [+2.6]
  10. ▴Miami Hurricanes (μ = 10.1 ± 1.2) [0.0]
  11. ▾Tennessee Volunteers (μ = 10.3 ± 0.6) [-3.4]
  12. ▾BYU Cougars (μ = 10.6 ± 2.2) [-4.4]
  13. ▸SMU Mustangs (μ = 12.1 ± 1.4) [+1.0]
  14. ▸Boise State Broncos (μ = 12.6 ± 0.7) [+0.5]
  15. ▸Texas A&M Aggies (μ = 15.2 ± 0.5) [0.0]
  16. ▴Colorado Buffaloes (μ = 17.2 ± 0.9) [+1.9]
  17. ▴Army Black Knights (μ = 17.8 ± 2.9) [+2.2]
  18. ▾Clemson Tigers (μ = 18.0 ± 1.0) [+0.4]
  19. ▴South Carolina Gamecocks (μ = 19.8 ± 1.0) [+3.7]
  20. ▴Tulane Green Wave (μ = 22.1 ± 1.1) [+4.4]
  21. ▴Iowa State Cyclones (μ = 22.3 ± 2.0) [+1.2]
  22. ▾Kansas State Wildcats (μ = 23.7 ± 2.2) [-5.1]
  23. ▾Washington State Cougars (μ = 23.9 ± 3.1) [-5.0]
  24. ▴Arizona State Sun Devils (μ = 24.7 ± 2.6)
  25. ▸Missouri Tigers (μ = 25.5 ± 1.8) [-1.6]
  26. ▴UNLV Rebels (μ = 26.2 ± 1.7)
  27. ▾LSU Tigers (μ = 27.1 ± 1.0) [-6.7]
  28. ▾Louisville Cardinals (μ = 28.0 ± 1.0) [-5.6]
  29. ▴Illinois Fighting Illini
  30. ▾Pittsburgh Panthers

Week 12 Inertial Consensus Ranking (updated November 14, 2024)

  1. ▸Oregon Ducks (μ = 1.0 ± 0.0) [0.0]
  2. ▴Ohio State Buckeyes (μ = 2.2 ± 0.2) [+0.8]
  3. ▴Texas Longhorns (μ = 3.7 ± 0.6) [+1.8]
  4. ▴Indiana Hoosiers (μ = 5.3 ± 1.5) [+1.9]
  5. ▴Penn State Nittany Lions (μ = 5.5 ± 0.6) [+0.7]
  6. ▴BYU Cougars (μ = 6.2 ± 1.0) [+1.8]
  7. ▴Tennessee Volunteers (μ = 6.9 ± 0.8) [+1.5]
  8. ▴Notre Dame Fighting Irish (μ = 8.5 ± 0.7) [+1.4]
  9. ▾Georgia Bulldogs (μ = 8.8 ± 2.8) [-6.4]
  10. ▴Alabama Crimson Tide (μ = 9.8 ± 0.8) [+3.1]
  11. ▾Miami Hurricanes (μ = 10.1 ± 1.4) [-6.1]
  12. ▴Ole Miss Rebels (μ = 11.8 ± 0.8) [+5.1]
  13. ▸SMU Mustangs (μ = 13.1 ± 1.6) [+1.0]
  14. ▾Boise State Broncos (μ = 13.1 ± 1.8) [+0.7]
  15. ▾Texas A&M Aggies (μ = 15.2 ± 0.6) [-0.9]
  16. ▴Clemson Tigers (μ = 18.4 ± 1.7) [+0.1]
  17. ▴Kansas State Wildcats (μ = 18.6 ± 1.5) [+0.6]
  18. ▴Washington State Cougars (μ = 18.9 ± 1.1) [+2.4]
  19. ▴Colorado Buffaloes (μ = 19.1 ± 1.2) [+3.1]
  20. ▴Army Black Knights (μ = 20.0 ± 4.1) [+1.6]
  21. ▾LSU Tigers (μ = 20.5 ± 1.0) [-5.2]
  22. ▴Louisville Cardinals (μ = 22.4 ± 2.0) [+3.3]
  23. ▾Iowa State Cyclones (μ = 23.5 ± 3.4) [-9.1]
  24. ▴South Carolina Gamecocks (μ = 23.5 ± 1.4) [+5.3]
  25. ▾Missouri Tigers (μ = 23.9 ± 1.4) [+1.3]
  26. ▾Pittsburgh Panthers (μ = 25.3 ± 2.5) [-7.4]
  27. ▴Tulane Green Wave (μ = 26.5 ± 1.2)
  28. ▴Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
  29. ▾Vanderbilt Commodores
  30. ▴Arizona State Sun Devils

Week 11 Inertial Consensus Ranking (updated November 7, 2024)

  1. ▸Oregon Ducks (μ = 1.0 ± 0.0) [+0.1]
  2. ▸Georgia Bulldogs (μ = 2.4 ± 0.8) [-0.1]
  3. ▴Ohio State Buckeyes (μ = 3.0 ± 0.6) [+1.6]
  4. ▸Miami Hurricanes (μ = 4.0 ± 0.4) [+0.5]
  5. ▴Texas Longhorns (μ = 5.5 ± 1.0) [+0.4]
  6. ▾Penn State Nittany Lions (μ = 6.2 ± 0.7) [-3.1]
  7. ▸Indiana Hoosiers (μ = 7.2 ± 1.9) [+0.3]
  8. ▸BYU Cougars (μ = 8.0 ± 1.3) [-0.2]
  9. ▸Tennessee Volunteers (μ = 8.4 ± 1.0) [+1.5]
  10. ▴Notre Dame Fighting Irish (μ = 9.9 ± 0.5) [+0.8]
  11. ▴Alabama Crimson Tide (μ = 12.9 ± 0.9) [+2.2]
  12. ▴Boise State Broncos (μ = 13.8 ± 1.8) [+3.0]
  13. ▴SMU Mustangs (μ = 14.1 ± 1.7) [+4.9]
  14. ▾Texas A&M Aggies (μ = 14.3 ± 0.9) [-2.3]
  15. ▾Iowa State Cyclones (μ = 14.4 ± 2.3) [-4.3]
  16. ▴LSU Tigers (μ = 15.3 ± 1.1) [+1.1]
  17. ▴Ole Miss Rebels (μ = 16.9 ± 1.2) [+3.9]
  18. ▾Pittsburgh Panthers (μ = 17.9 ± 1.7) [-2.1]
  19. ▾Clemson Tigers (μ = 18.5 ± 1.1) [-7.4]
  20. ▾Kansas State Wildcats (μ = 19.2 ± 1.6) [-3.5]
  21. ▴Washington State Cougars (μ = 21.3 ± 1.4) [+1.8]
  22. ▾Army Black Knights (μ = 21.6 ± 3.5) [-0.5]
  23. ▴Colorado Buffaloes (μ = 22.2 ± 1.6) [+2.9]
  24. ▸Missouri Tigers (μ = 25.2 ± 2.0) [-1.1]
  25. ▴Louisville Cardinals (μ = 25.7 ± 1.6)
  26. ▸Vanderbilt Commodores (μ = 27.4 ± 2.6) [-1.0]
  27. ▾Illinois Fighting Illini
  28. ▸South Carolina Gamecocks
  29. ▴Tulane Green Wave
  30. ▾Memphis Tigers

Week 10 Inertial Consensus Ranking (updated October 29, 2024)

Much of this week's ranking movement was driven by inertial settling, though there were a few high-profile shakeups, including Texas A&M's victory over LSU and Missouri's fall to Alabama. Everyone else in the top 20 won in Week 9, though there were close calls in Ohio State-Nebraska and Texas-Vanderbilt. 

Naturally, a mostly uneventful week for ranking movement leads to teams settling more into a linearly-spaced arrangement rather than bunching into tiers, and that's what we see after Week 9. There is a bit of a gap between Texas A&M and Alabama, but aside from that, things look pretty consistent overall. The mean inertial ranking suggests that Oregon is currently the most clear-cut #1 team we've seen all year.

  1. ▸Oregon Ducks (μ = 1.1 ± 0.0) [+0.4]
  2. ▴Georgia Bulldogs (μ = 2.3 ± 1.2) [+1.2]
  3. ▾Penn State Nittany Lions (μ = 3.1 ± 0.6) [0.0]
  4. ▴Miami Hurricanes (μ = 4.5 ± 0.7) [+0.2]
  5. ▾Ohio State Buckeyes (μ = 4.6 ± 1.0) [-0.4]
  6. ▾Texas Longhorns (μ = 5.9 ± 1.2) [-1.4]
  7. ▴Indiana Hoosiers (μ = 7.5 ± 1.8) [+1.5]
  8. ▾BYU Cougars (μ = 7.8 ± 1.6) [+0.7]
  9. ▴Tennessee Volunteers (μ = 9.9 ± 1.5) [+0.5]
  10. ▾Iowa State Cyclones (μ = 10.1 ± 1.7) [-0.9]
  11. ▴Notre Dame Fighting Irish (μ = 10.7 ± 0.8) [+1.9]
  12. ▾Clemson Tigers (μ = 11.1 ± 1.4) [-1.6]
  13. ▴Texas A&M Aggies (μ = 12.0 ± 1.2) [+2.3]
  14. ▴Alabama Crimson Tide (μ = 15.1 ± 0.8) [-0.2]
  15. ▴Kansas State Wildcats (μ = 15.7 ± 0.9) [+0.1]
  16. ▴Pittsburgh Panthers (μ = 15.8 ± 1.8) [+0.8]
  17. ▾LSU Tigers (μ = 16.4 ± 0.8) [-5.2]
  18. ▸Boise State Broncos (μ = 16.8 ± 1.6) [+0.4]
  19. ▸SMU Mustangs (μ = 19.0 ± 1.1) [+1.0]
  20. ▴Ole Miss Rebels (μ = 20.8 ± 1.6) [+0.8]
  21. ▴Army Black Knights (μ = 21.1 ± 2.6) [+0.7]
  22. ▴Washington State Cougars (μ = 23.1 ± 2.0) [+3.3]
  23. ▾Illinois Fighting Illini (μ = 23.6 ± 2.5) [-2.3]
  24. ▾Missouri Tigers (μ = 24.1 ± 1.6) [-2.9]
  25. ▴Colorado Buffaloes (μ = 25.1 ± 2.1)
  26. ▾Navy Midshipmen (μ = 25.5 ± 1.7) [-2.8]
  27. ▾Vanderbilt Commodores (μ = 26.4 ± 3.3) [+0.4]
  28. ▴Memphis Tigers (μ = 27.8 ± 1.7)
  29. ▴Arkansas Razorbacks
  30. ▾Syracuse Orange

Week 9 Inertial Consensus Ranking (updated October 22, 2024)

There's a new inertial #1 in town. After dropping earlier in the year due to close games against Idaho and Boise State, Oregon has bubbled up back to #1 with the aid of Georgia knocking off Texas in last week's most highly advertised matchup. The average inertial ranking this week seems to paint a three tiered structure in the top 30. Oregon stands alone in Tier 1A while Penn State through Miami lie in Tier 1B. There's a sharp cutoff to Tier 2A, with BYU leading the cohort. Notre Dame seems to be an intermediary between Tier 2A and 2B, which extends from Texas A&M to Boise State, including Alabama, this week's biggest dropper.

No teams rose dramatically this week, though Indiana's plastering of Nebraska saw their consensus rating rise 2.9 points to put them in the top 10. Interestingly, despite winning, Iowa State's average rating dropped modestly due to being passed up by an ascendant Indiana.

  1. ▴Oregon Ducks (μ = 1.5 ± 0.7) [+1.0]
  2. ▴Penn State Nittany Lions (μ = 3.1 ± 0.7) [+0.7]
  3. ▴Georgia Bulldogs (μ = 3.5 ± 1.4) [+2.0]
  4. ▾Ohio State Buckeyes (μ = 4.2 ± 0.9) [-0.9]
  5. ▾Texas Longhorns (μ = 4.5 ± 1.2) [-3.3]
  6. ▾Miami Hurricanes (μ = 4.7 ± 0.6) [+0.6]
  7. ▴BYU Cougars (μ = 8.5 ± 1.4) [+0.7]
  8. ▴Indiana Hoosiers (μ = 9.0 ± 2.2) [+2.9]
  9. ▾Iowa State Cyclones (μ = 9.2 ± 1.2)
  10. ▴Clemson Tigers (μ = 9.5 ± 1.1) [+0.7]
  11. ▴Tennessee Volunteers (μ = 10.4 ± 1.6) [+1.8]
  12. ▴LSU Tigers (μ = 11.2 ± 1.8) [+1.5]
  13. ▴Notre Dame Fighting Irish (μ = 12.6 ± 0.7) [+0.5]
  14. ▴Texas A&M Aggies (μ = 14.3 ± 1.0) [+1.1]
  15. ▾Alabama Crimson Tide (μ = 14.9 ± 1.3) [-7.6]
  16. ▸Kansas State Wildcats (μ = 15.8 ± 1.0) [+1.4]
  17. ▸Pittsburgh Panthers (μ = 16.6 ± 1.9) [+1.4]
  18. ▸Boise State Broncos (μ = 17.2 ± 1.4) [+0.9]
  19. ▴SMU Mustangs (μ = 20.0 ± 1.7) [+0.2]
  20. ▸Missouri Tigers (μ = 21.2 ± 2.3) [-1.5]
  21. ▴Illinois Fighting Illini (μ = 21.3 ± 1.8) [+2.7]
  22. ▾Ole Miss Rebels (μ = 21.6 ± 2.1) [-3.3]
  23. ▾Army Black Knights (μ = 21.8 ± 2.6) [+2.1]
  24. ▸Navy Midshipmen (μ = 22.7 ± 1.2) [+1.8]
  25. ▴Washington State Cougars (μ = 26.4 ± 2.0)
  26. ▴Vanderbilt Commodores (μ = 26.8 ± 2.4)
  27. ▴Syracuse Orange
  28. ▾Nebraska Cornhuskers
  29. ▴Liberty Flames
  30. ▴UNLV Rebels

Week 8 Inertial Consensus Ranking (updated October 13 2024)

October 12 has been a weekend that has been long penned since the offseason as a date with key matchups, and it certainly delivered. While there weren't as many chaotic upsets as last week, we definitely learned substantially more about the teams and how they really tier out with roughly half of the regular season complete. 

The weekend's highest profile game didn't cause too much movement in the consensus rankings, with Oregon and Ohio State swapping places. Penn State survived an expectedly close game at USC while Alabama and Georgia played unexpectedly close games, though Alabama's was certainly much less comfortable. The late night marathon of a Magnolia Bowl vaulted LSU into or near the top 10 in most recent rankings while Ole Miss took a step down. Utah will probably crater out of the consensus rankings soon; they don't look like a ranked team. Both Army and Navy are now in the inertial consensus top 25 while Nebraska and Arizona State look onwards from just outside.

Final Update 10/17/2024: A little late on this one, but here's the final update for this week. Alabama's close shave against South Carolina dropped them a little more aggressively in the mean consensus ranking this week, while the ordering of Miami and Georgia remains in flux as the media jumbles Miami's undefeated record with their recent narrow victories. Despite not losing this week, Tennessee dropped substantially following a low-scoring overtime affair against Florida that's put their once high-flying offense into question. Michigan, Utah, and Oklahoma have each tumbled out of the inertial top 25 while Texas Tech looks to make an entrance soon if all goes well against Baylor this weekend. Folks aren't too sure where to place Indiana and Pittsburgh -- does their undefeated record give them a higher ranking, or are they still untested?

  1. ▸Texas Longhorns (μ = 1.2 ± 0.5) [+0.3]
  2. ▴Oregon Ducks (μ = 2.5 ± 0.5) [+1.5]
  3. ▾Ohio State Buckeyes (μ = 3.3 ± 0.8) [-0.9]
  4. ▸Penn State Nittany Lions (μ = 3.8 ± 0.6) [+1.2]
  5. ▴Miami Hurricanes (μ = 5.3 ± 0.5) [+0.6]
  6. ▸Georgia Bulldogs (μ = 5.5 ± 1.3) [-0.1]
  7. ▾Alabama Crimson Tide (μ = 7.3 ± 0.5) [-2.0]
  8. ▴Iowa State Cyclones (μ = 8.4 ± 1.3) [+1.8]
  9. ▴BYU Cougars (μ = 9.2 ± 0.6) [+1.6]
  10. ▴Clemson Tigers (μ = 10.2 ± 1.3) [+1.6]
  11. ▴Indiana Hoosiers (μ = 11.9 ± 2.4) [+2.6]
  12. ▾Tennessee Volunteers (μ = 12.2 ± 1.4) [-4.0]
  13. ▴LSU Tigers (μ = 12.7 ± 1.8) [+3.3]
  14. ▾Notre Dame Fighting Irish (μ = 13.1 ± 0.7) [+1.2]
  15. ▴Texas A&M Aggies (μ = 15.4 ± 1.1) [+3.4]
  16. ▸Kansas State Wildcats (μ = 17.2 ± 1.5) [+1.0]
  17. ▴Pittsburgh Panthers (μ = 18.0 ± 2.5) [+3.6]
  18. ▴Boise State Broncos (μ = 18.1 ± 1.4) [+1.8]
  19. ▾Ole Miss Rebels (μ = 18.3 ± 1.4) [-6.6]
  20. ▾Missouri Tigers (μ = 19.7 ± 2.3) [-1.4]
  21. ▴SMU Mustangs (μ = 20.2 ± 1.8) [+4.0]
  22. ▴Army Black Knights (μ = 23.9 ± 2.1) [+3.8]
  23. ▴Illinois Fighting Illini (μ = 24.0 ± 1.7) [+0.5]
  24. ▴Navy Midshipmen (μ = 24.5 ± 1.4) [+2.5]
  25. ▴Nebraska Cornhuskers (μ = 26.6 ± 2.3)
  26. ▴Texas Tech Red Raiders (μ = 27.3 ± 1.9)
  27. ▾Michigan Wolverines (μ = 27.3 ± 2.4)
  28. ▾Utah Utes
  29. ▾Oklahoma Sooners
  30. ▴Washington State Cougars

Week 7 Inertial Consensus Ranking (updated October 6, 2024)

Wow. What was initially thought to be a week of boring matchups turned into an upset fest. Rankings have largely been sent into disarray with the number of ranked v. unranked upsets, throwing the ordering of teams out of whack. Of course, the inertial nature of the consensus ranking means teams aren't moving as drastically as they do in the individual rankings (or even my own personal ranking), but there's some dramatic movement nonetheless.

Texas and Ohio State have bubbled up to the top of the pack in a tier somewhat separated from the rest, followed by a second tier of mixed bags (from Georgia down to Tennessee) and then a third tier of even more mixed bags. BYU and Iowa State continue to climb and threaten the top 10, while Missouri, Michigan, and USC have tumbled heavily.

Because of the amount of movement in the rankings, there are several teams in the #25-30 range that are probably just there because of inertia but will drop out as more rankings are included with fresh faces. 

Final Update 10/8/2024: With more rankings in, Georgia has slipped to #6, probably as Alabama's fall to Vanderbilt has greatly weakened their "quality loss". Iowa State and BYU are also now also top 10 teams, a rare sight, though there's clearly separation in the rankings between the top 7 teams, followed by a Tennessee, followed by the rest of the teams. In sum, only four teams didn't move in the ranking placement: Texas, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and Illinois.

  1. ▸Texas Longhorns (μ = 1.5 ± 0.7) [+0.3]
  2. ▴Ohio State Buckeyes (μ = 2.4 ± 0.6) [+0.8]
  3. ▴Oregon Ducks (μ = 4.0 ± 0.9) [+2.4]
  4. ▴Penn State Nittany Lions (μ = 5.0 ± 0.6) [+2.0]
  5. ▾Alabama Crimson Tide (μ = 5.3 ± 1.3) [-3.1]
  6. ▾Georgia Bulldogs (μ = 5.4 ± 1.3) [-0.6]
  7. ▴Miami Hurricanes (μ = 5.9 ± 0.6) [+1.6]
  8. ▾Tennessee Volunteers (μ = 8.2 ± 0.9) [-4.3]
  9. ▴Iowa State Cyclones (μ = 10.2 ± 1.6) [+3.0]
  10. ▴BYU Cougars (μ = 10.8 ± 1.9) [+3.7]
  11. ▸Ole Miss Rebels (μ = 11.7 ± 2.2) [+1.0]
  12. ▴Clemson Tigers (μ = 11.8 ± 1.8) [+2.3]
  13. ▴Notre Dame Fighting Irish (μ = 14.3 ± 1.1) [+2.4]
  14. ▴Indiana Hoosiers (μ = 14.5 ± 2.2) [+5.5]
  15. ▴LSU Tigers (μ = 16.0 ± 2.3) [+1.3]
  16. ▴Kansas State Wildcats (μ = 18.2 ± 1.5) [+1.8]
  17. ▾Missouri Tigers (μ = 18.3 ± 2.4) [-8.8]
  18. ▴Texas A&M Aggies (μ = 18.8 ± 2.7)
  19. ▴Boise State Broncos (μ = 19.9 ± 1.6) [+4.5]
  20. ▾Utah Utes (μ = 20.1 ± 1.1) [-2.5]
  21. ▸Oklahoma Sooners (μ = 20.3 ± 1.8) [+0.4]
  22. ▴Pittsburgh Panthers (μ = 21.6 ± 3.1)
  23. ▾Michigan Wolverines (μ = 23.9 ± 1.9) [-12.6]
  24. ▴SMU Mustangs (μ = 24.2 ± 2.9)
  25. ▸Illinois Fighting Illini (μ = 24.5 ± 1.8)
  26. ▾USC Trojans (μ = 25.3 ± 1.6) [-12.4]
  27. ▴Navy Midshipmen (μ = 27.0 ± 1.9)
  28. ▴Army Black Knights (μ = 27.7 ± 1.6)
  29. ▴Nebraska Cornhuskers
  30. ▾Louisville Cardinals

Week 6 Inertial Consensus Ranking (updated September 29, 2024)

Alabama's win in an all-time classic against Georgia vaulted them to the #1 spot in most media rankings, though oddly, Texas remained ranked ahead of them in the Coaches Poll. Texas' persistence at #1 or #2 the past few weeks has enabled them to stick at #1 for this week's inertial consensus ranking, though if Alabama holds serve at #1, they should take the spot this week or next week. Georgia moved down to #5 at the back end in what's become this week's "tier 1", with the consensus ranking of Miami sharply below the first five. Ole Miss and Utah dropped sharply after losses to unranked opponents, and will likely fall further with the mid-week update. 

Final Update 10/1/2024: Happy October! The final update adds 4 media rankings. Miami's escape at home against Virginia Tech dinged them in the rankings a bit, falling behind Oregon and Penn State. There remains a noticeable gap between the top 8 teams, followed by Missouri in a somewhat standalone tier, followed by the middle of the pack. BYU has bubbled up impressively into the middle tier alongside teams like Clemson and Notre Dame. It's a bit of a coincidence that BYU was the biggest climber and Utah the biggest tumbler. Oklahoma State is sticking around in the top 30 this week due to inertia, though they'll probably fall out completely next week as no media ranking this week had them in the top 30.

  1. ▸Texas Longhorns (μ = 1.8 ± 0.4) [-0.6]
  2. ▴Alabama Crimson Tide (μ = 2.2 ± 0.7) [+2.6]
  3. ▸Ohio State Buckeyes (μ = 3.2 ± 0.9) [+0.3]
  4. ▸Tennessee Volunteers (μ = 3.9 ± 0.3) [+0.1]
  5. ▾Georgia Bulldogs (μ = 4.8 ± 1.2) [-2.7]
  6. ▴Oregon Ducks (μ = 6.4 ± 1.1) [+1.9]
  7. ▴Penn State Nittany Lions (μ = 7.0 ± 0.7) [+2.2]
  8. ▾Miami Hurricanes (μ = 7.5 ± 0.8) [-0.3]
  9. ▴Missouri Tigers (μ = 9.5 ± 0.4) [+0.7]
  10. ▴Michigan Wolverines (μ = 11.3 ± 1.6) [+3.1]
  11. ▾Ole Miss Rebels (μ = 12.7 ± 1.9) [-6.9]
  12. ▸USC Trojans (μ = 12.9 ± 0.9) [+0.3]
  13. ▴Iowa State Cyclones (μ = 13.2 ± 1.9) [+3.0]
  14. ▴Clemson Tigers (μ = 14.1 ± 1.5) [+3.4]
  15. ▴BYU Cougars (μ = 14.5 ± 2.0) [+8.1]
  16. ▴Notre Dame Fighting Irish (μ = 16.7 ± 1.7) [+2.9]
  17. ▾LSU Tigers (μ = 17.3 ± 1.2) [-0.2]
  18. ▾Utah Utes (μ = 17.6 ± 1.4) [-7.1]
  19. ▴Indiana Hoosiers (μ = 20.0 ± 1.8) [+5.9]
  20. ▴Kansas State Wildcats (μ = 20.0 ± 1.9) [+1.6]
  21. ▾Oklahoma Sooners (μ = 20.7 ± 1.7) [-0.2]
  22. ▾Louisville Cardinals (μ = 22.1 ± 1.7) [-5.9]
  23. ▴UNLV Rebels (μ = 24.3 ± 1.5)
  24. ▴Boise State Broncos (μ = 24.4 ± 1.9)
  25. ▾Illinois Fighting Illini (μ = 24.8 ± 1.8) [-4.6]
  26. ▴Rutgers Scarlet Knights (μ = 26.8 ± 1.8)
  27. ▾Oklahoma State Cowboys
  28. ▴Pittsburgh Panthers
  29. ▴Duke Blue Devils

Week 5 Inertial Consensus Ranking (updated September 22, 2024)

The Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss tier remains steady this week, though Tennessee has slightly passed Ole Miss following their impressive win at Oklahoma. Oregon's stabilization in the rankings has also moved them ever so slightly past Miami, at least in the initial cycle of rankings. Another unconvincing performance for Missouri has resulted in a slide downwards, accompanied by an increase in their placement outside of the top 10 in favor of Utah, which we may see later this week as more rankings get added. 

There was certainly a lot of shuffling in the back-15 of the top 25 with several losses. Michigan's last-minute defeat of USC resulted in Michigan rising by an average of 4.2 spots and USC dropping by 3.2. Michigan is still behind USC given the ranking inertia, but that may change with the updates later this week. Oklahoma fell by an average 2.8 spots after losing to Tennessee while Oklahoma State fell by 3.7 after losing to Utah. BYU and Illinois had large rises in their mean. There is substantial disagreement in the last few members of the top 25, with #25 Texas A&M having a mean ranking of 27.4 (compare with 26.8 from #25 Memphis last week).

Final Update 9/24/2024: With the inclusion of The Athletic, ESPN, CBS Sports, and r/CFB, Tennessee has been awarded the #4 position ahead of Alabama. There's a general consensus concerning who belongs to the top 11 or so teams, with a general agreement over where teams within that grouping broadly belong. After that, uncertainty ramps up significantly for teams in the #11-#23 area followed by even less certain newcomers and dropouts. 

 Michigan's rise and USC's fall weren't sufficient to overcome the consensus inertia, though there was strong agreement in the rankings to list Michigan at #12 and USC somewhere around #13-16. USC did have some top-10 shouts last week, which explains the stronger inertia for USC: Michigan is calibrating to a much higher position than it was previously, while USC isn't dropping too quickly. Louisville remains the most uncertain team in the top 25. Clemson was the most rapid riser following their blowout win against NC State, and college football analysts and fans appear to be recalibrating their interpretation of the season opening blowout loss to Georgia. Kansas State dropped heavily after their defeat against BYU, with their consensus rank falling by 8.6 points

  1. ▸Texas Longhorns (μ = 1.2 ± 0.8) [+0.2]
  2. ▸Georgia Bulldogs (μ = 2.1 ± 0.5) [-0.3]
  3. ▸Ohio State Buckeyes (μ = 3.5 ± 0.9) [-0.1]
  4. ▴Tennessee Volunteers (μ = 4.0 ± 0.6) [+1.2]
  5. ▾Alabama Crimson Tide (μ = 4.8 ± 1.1) [-0.5]
  6. ▸Ole Miss Rebels (μ = 5.8 ± 0.7) [-0.3]
  7. ▸Miami Hurricanes (μ = 7.2 ± 1.2) [+0.9]
  8. ▴Oregon Ducks (μ = 8.3 ± 0.9) [+0.4]
  9. ▴Penn State Nittany Lions (μ = 9.2 ± 0.9) [+0.5]
  10. ▾Missouri Tigers (μ = 10.2 ± 0.8) [-1.7]
  11. ▴Utah Utes (μ = 10.5 ± 0.8) [+1.7]
  12. ▾USC Trojans (μ = 13.2 ± 1.1) [-3.2]
  13. ▴Michigan Wolverines (μ = 14.4 ± 1.2) [+4.9]
  14. ▴Louisville Cardinals (μ = 16.21 ± 3.4) [+1.6]
  15. ▴Iowa State Cyclones (μ = 16.23 ± 2.4) [+1.9]
  16. ▴LSU Tigers (μ = 17.477 ± 1.8) [+0.7]
  17. ▴Clemson Tigers (μ = 17.478 ± 1.1) [+4.0]
  18. ▾Oklahoma State Cowboys (μ = 19.2 ± 1.5) [-4.9]
  19. ▴Notre Dame Fighting Irish (μ = 19.6 ± 2.3) [+2.1]
  20. ▴Illinois Fighting Illini (μ = 20.2 ± 1.7) [+6.2]
  21. ▾Oklahoma Sooners (μ = 20.5 ± 1.8) [-5.5]
  22. ▾Kansas State Wildcats (μ = 21.6 ± 2.7) [-8.6]
  23. ▴BYU Cougars (μ = 22.6 ± 1.9)
  24. ▴Indiana Hoosiers (μ = 25.9 ± 1.7)
  25. ▴Washington State Cougars (μ = 26.3 ± 3.7)
  26. ▾Nebraska Cornhuskers
  27. ▴UNLV Rebels
  28. ▴UCF Knights
  29. ▾Boston College Eagles
  30. ▾Northern Illinois Huskies

Week 4 Inertial Consensus Ranking (updated September 17, 2024)

Georgia's struggles at Kentucky appear to have caused some shakeup at the very top of the rankings, with Texas gaining momentum as highlighted by the Longhorns' #1 ranking atop the AP Poll. Texas now sits barely above Georgia to claim the #1 spot in the consensus ranking. Ohio State is a clear third, followed by Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee in a tier just behind the cream of the crop. Oregon, Penn State, Missouri, and USC have clustered into the "back of the top 10" tier; Oregon's descent into this tier following milquetoast performances against teams from Idaho appears to have stabilized, while it is less clear whether the rise of Miami and USC in the rankings will continue.

Most rankings are generally in agreement in the general composition of the top 30 up to about Nebraska, Louisville, and Notre Dame. The final 7 or so spots in the rankings are all over the place. Arizona entered this fuzzy region this week following their loss to Kansas State, and rankings are still Northern Illinois-skeptical despite their win at Notre Dame. Expect persistent shuffling in that part of the ranking here in the early season, though conference play is about to get going in earnest.

Update 9/16/2024: The inclusion of the CBS Sports Ranking, The Athletic, and ESPN power rankings have placed Texas atop the consensus ranking, with all three outlets placing Texas at #1. Miami also moved up two spots (with an average ranking jump by 1.5). Iowa State also moved up quite considerably by 4 spots to #17, but with large uncertainty bars. Louisville being ranked #35 in The Athletic dropped them by quite a bit, but they remain squarely in the top 25. UNLV moved outside the top 30 while Iowa moved in.

Final Update 9/17/2024: The 327-member Reddit r/CFB consensus poll for Week 4 was added. No major changes towards the top of the rankings, though the poll's bearish stance on Penn State dropped them 2 spots in the consensus ranking. There was also a bit of shuffling past the #15 spot, but generally within the previously indicated standard deviation range. Texas A&M and Iowa moved out of the consensus rankings, replaced by Washington State (ranked #22 in the r/CFB poll) and UCF (ranked #25 in the r/CFB poll).
  1. Texas Longhorns (μ = 1.4 ± 0.3)
  2. Georgia Bulldogs (μ = 1.8 ± 0.4)
  3. Ohio State Buckeyes (μ = 3.4 ± 0.6)
  4. Alabama Crimson Tide (μ = 4.3 ± 1.5)
  5. Ole Miss Rebels (μ = 5.50 ± 1.0)
  6. Tennessee Volunteers (μ = 5.52 ± 1.1)
  7. Miami Hurricanes (μ = 8.1 ± 1.9)
  8. Missouri Tigers (μ = 8.5 ± 1.3)
  9. Oregon Ducks (μ = 8.7 ± 1.6)
  10. Penn State Nittany Lions (μ = 9.7 ± 0.9)
  11. USC Trojans (μ = 10.0 ± 1.7)
  12. Utah Utes (μ = 12.2 ± 1.1)
  13. Kansas State Wildcats (μ = 13.0 ± 1.2)
  14. Oklahoma State Cowboys (μ = 14.3 ± 1.4)
  15. Oklahoma Sooners (μ = 15.0 ± 1.0)
  16. Louisville Cardinals (μ = 17.8 ± 3.0)
  17. Iowa State Cyclones (μ = 18.1 ± 3.7)
  18. LSU Tigers (μ = 18.2 ± 2.3)
  19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (μ = 19.1 ± 1.6)
  20. Michigan Wolverines (μ = 19.3 ± 2.5)
  21. Clemson Tigers (μ = 21.5 ± 2.9)
  22. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (μ = 21.7 ± 2.1)
  23. Northern Illinois Huskies (μ = 23.2 ± 2.4)
  24. Illinois Fighting Illini (μ = 26.4 ± 2.3)
  25. Memphis Tigers (μ = 26.8 ± 2.7)
  26. Washington State Cougars
  27. Arizona Wildcats
  28. Boston College Eagles
  29. Syracuse Orange
  30. UCF Knights

2024 Preseason Consensus Ranking

This ranking is a weighted average of 31 media outlet rankings between May 1, 2024, and August 24, 2024, delineating roughly the preseason period after the end of spring practice and Week 0. This ranking is not determined by LOWESS, but is a simple average weighted by the relevance of the individual media outlet ranking. The preseason AP and Coaches polls are given a weight of 3, oft-cited media rankings like ESPN have a weight of 2, and all other rankings have a weight of 1.
  1. Georgia Bulldogs (μ = 1.3 ± 0.5)
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes (μ = 1.9 ± 1.0)
  3. Oregon Ducks (μ = 3.3 ± 0.7)
  4. Texas Longhorns (μ = 3.6 ± 0.8)
  5. Alabama Crimson Tide (μ = 5.7 ± 1.3)
  6. Ole Miss Rebels (μ = 6.2 ± 1.6)
  7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (μ = 7.4 ± 2.3)
  8. Michigan Wolverines (μ = 8.9 ± 2.3)
  9. Penn State Nittany Lions (μ = 10.0 ± 3.1)
  10. Florida State Seminoles (μ = 11.2 ± 2.9)
  11. Missouri Tigers (μ = 11.4 ± 4.2)
  12. Utah Utes (μ = 12.3 ± 2.7)
  13. LSU Tigers (μ = 12.7 ± 3.0)
  14. Clemson Tigers (μ = 14.2 ± 2.8)
  15. Tennessee Volunteers (μ = 15.3 ± 3.5)
  16. Oklahoma Sooners (μ = 15.9 ± 3.4)
  17. Kansas State Wildcats (μ = 18.5 ± 3.3)
  18. Oklahoma State Cowboys (μ = 18.6 ± 3.8)
  19. Miami Hurricanes (μ = 19.4 ± 6.4)
  20. Arizona Wildcats (μ = 22.0 ± 4.8)
  21. USC Trojans (μ = 22.9 ± 4.7)
  22. Texas A&M Aggies (μ = 23.3 ± 4.4)
  23. Kansas Jayhawks (μ = 23.4 ± 3.4)
  24. NC State Wolfpack (μ = 23.7 ± 5.3)
  25. Iowa Hawkeyes (μ = 24.6 ± 4.3)
  26. Louisville Cardinals
  27. Virginia Tech Hokies
  28. West Virginia Mountaineers
  29. Washington Huskies
  30. SMU Mustangs
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