Potential MLK Storm Event for Central Texas

As Central Texas experiences an overcast day with weak, intermittent showers and patchy mist, a more significant, potentially severe storm event might just be looming around the corner this weekend and through MLK Day on Monday. A stationary cold front lies just south of the I-10 corridor, helping to keep areas north of the interstate cooler and protected from the warm Gulf air responsible for some of the recent record highs. Very light rainfall in the context of widespread mistiness is expected throughout the day Saturday, though with some instability arising from a weak low-level jet there may be some isolated and highly localized storm activity later tonight, mostly west of the Austin area.

The action will start to pick up Sunday as a low-pressure system and associated cold front sweep east across the state; the disturbance is currently over Mexico. Prior to the arrival of the front there should be plenty of scattered showers streaming in from the southeast. With increasing southerly winds and energy in the atmosphere (CAPE), there may be some severe thunderstorm development further west in the San Angelo area; some of these storms may take advantage of the modest shear and become tornadic. These thunderstorms should congeal into a line as they approach the Austin area Sunday night, making wind the primary severe threat associated with these storms here.