A segment of the monsoon trough in the East Pacific has been showing signs of organization throughout the day today, and has become interesting enough to be designated as an investigative area, or "INVEST" for short. 90E is the first investigative area designated this year - such areas are designated with a number from 90 to 99, which repeats as more and more disturbances are tagged. Conditions seem modestly favorable for development, with light shear and warm waters. The National Hurricane Center has indicated a 20% chance for tropical cyclogenesis in the next two days and a 70% over the next five days. All major global forecast models indicate eventual development, with the GFS being the most aggressive and taking the storm up to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane as it approaches El Salvador - the fact that there is a possibility at all of a hurricane impacting El Salvador is quite rare, and no storms have made landfall on the typically protected country. The IFS is weaker and depicts the eventual tropical cyclone striking Mexico's southeastern coast, but nonetheless depicts a hurricane.
The storm should be steered westward (the extent of this remains uncertain) by a ridge in the Gulf of Mexico, before being propelled northeast by a passing trough.
A look back at the projected tracks on several GFS runs prior to the designation of Invest 90E:
